Envisioning eVTOL Failure First (and Learning from It)

Imagine you’re assigned the task of designing the worst possible future transportation system. How would you approach it? Prioritize inefficiency, ignore safety, and make it a luxury for only the wealthiest. This thought experiment may seem counterproductive, but it’s the basis of an insightful mental model called “inversion,” famously championed by investor Charlie Munger. By outlining the steps to fail, we reveal the roadmap to success.

In that spirit, let’s explore what not to do if we want electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing vehicles (eVTOLs) to succeed in transforming urban air mobility. The promise of eVTOLs is exciting: reduced traffic, faster commutes, and lower emissions. But without the right strategy, these goals could crash and burn—literally. Here’s a list of guaranteed ways to make eVTOLs flop—and in doing so, we’ll uncover the true blueprint to make them soar.

1. Ignore Safety and Regulatory Standards

If you want eVTOLs to fail, make safety an afterthought. Fast-track development without rigorous testing, and forget about coordinating with aviation regulators. After all, why waste time on “minor details” like air traffic integration or rigorous fail-safe systems?

Consider early urban drone usage as a cautionary tale: frequent crashes, near-misses, and privacy concerns led to public backlash and forced regulatory crackdowns. eVTOLs would face the same fate if safety isn’t prioritized, sinking public trust and grounding potential before they even get off the ground.

2. Prioritize Short-Term Profits Over Long-Term Innovation

If short-term gains are all you care about, you’re on the fast track to eVTOL failure. Focus only on making immediate profits by cutting corners on R&D, skimping on battery technology, and rushing out low-quality, unreliable eVTOLs. By going all-in on flash and disregarding substance, you’ll ensure that eVTOLs are seen as just another tech fad destined for a swift rise and an even quicker fall.

3. Undermine Public Perception with Poor PR and Communication

Here’s a tip for guaranteed eVTOL failure: ignore what the public thinks. There’s no need to address concerns about noise, safety, or affordability, and absolutely no need to educate people on the benefits of eVTOLs. Just assume that once you launch, they’ll automatically understand how it works and why it’s worth their trust.

Failure to address public concerns is a surefire way to stoke fear and skepticism. Consumers might end up seeing eVTOLs as noisy intrusions or, worse, as an elitist mode of transport, further alienating them from the idea of urban air mobility.

4. Build Infrastructure Without Collaboration

To make sure eVTOLs fail, develop them in complete isolation. Ignore the need for a supporting infrastructure and dismiss collaboration with local governments and urban planners. After all, who really needs charging stations, vertiports, or proper integration with existing transportation systems?

Infrastructure is everything when it comes to successful transportation technology. Without charging stations or safe vertiport locations, eVTOLs are grounded before they’ve had a chance to lift off.

5. Ignore Cost Efficiency and Accessibility

Want to guarantee eVTOLs only appeal to a select few? Simple: keep the cost sky-high and design them exclusively for the wealthy elite. If you charge exorbitant fees for even the shortest trips, you’ll successfully prevent the average commuter from ever considering eVTOLs as a viable option.

This elitist approach to pricing has sunk countless technologies before they could reach mainstream adoption. The more inaccessible eVTOLs are, the more they’ll be seen as a luxury gimmick rather than a transformative urban solution.

6. Overlook Environmental Impact

An excellent strategy for eVTOL failure? Neglect the environmental footprint. If eVTOLs use inefficient or unsustainable energy sources, they’ll miss the mark on addressing the growing demand for greener urban solutions. Ignoring environmental concerns will leave eVTOLs with a reputation as yet another pollution-heavy technology rather than as a sustainable alternative to traditional transportation.

7. Fail to Adapt to Market Needs and Technological Advances

To ensure failure, stick rigidly to one design and market strategy without considering evolving technologies, customer preferences, or new market needs. A lack of flexibility will keep eVTOLs stuck in the past while other forms of transportation move forward.

Ignoring adaptability is a fast way to irrelevance, as market demands for transport evolve rapidly. New battery technologies, AI-driven autonomy, and shifting customer expectations mean that companies must stay nimble and responsive.

By exploring the many ways to fail, we uncover the necessary steps for eVTOLs to succeed. The future of eVTOLs hinges on more than just sleek designs and cool tech—it will require thoughtful strategy, innovation, and collaboration. If companies can prioritize safety, engage with the public, build supporting infrastructure, and commit to sustainability, eVTOLs could become a mainstay of urban mobility.

Inverting the question of success has helped us reveal the pitfalls to avoid. Now, as developers, policymakers, and future passengers, we have the chance to help eVTOLs take flight—not just as a technology but as a practical, accessible, and transformative urban solution.