Finally – A Tentative eVTOL Timeline

In response to a recent surge of the stock prices of Archer Aviation and Joby, I want to discuss the rIn response to a recent surge of the stock prices of Archer Aviation and Joby, I want to discuss the realistic timeline of eVTOLs. Myflyingauto is intended to be a central platform for those interested in eVTOLS to come together. Leaders must emerge after the initial introduction of new technology. Steve Jobs and Henry Ford were similar, such that they took a new invention, the internet and the automobile, and were able to commercialize them, bringing them to individuals at scale. The eVTOL is a marvelous new piece of technology, but it will require early adopters and innovators. 

Image from an onboard camera just before an Uber self-driving vehicle hit and killed Elaine Herzberg. (TEMPE POLICE DEPARTMENT/AP)

The dynamic is very similar to that of self-driving cars. The Uber incident of 2018, where an autonomous vehicle struck and killed a cyclist, significantly delayed the efforts of Waymo, Uber, & Tesla, as regulators stepped in cautiously and consumer skepticism increased. eVTOLs are similar; if one test goes wrong it could substantially delay the rollout. Everyone in the industry is aware of this and is, therefore, treading cautiously. Risks include, autonomous flying failures, airspace interference, and battery malfunctions. 

eVTOL technology is very attractive to military personal, who will most likely set the pace for its adoption. It is beneficial for a handful of reasons. First, it is easier to maintain, repair, and refuel than traditional aircrafts. The vertical take off capability allows them to be deployed on demand. Their autonomous nature aligns with the new style of warfare, which involves small, numerous autonomous systems working in tandem. Archer Aviation just recently partnered with Anduril to deploy their eVTOLS in this way.

The next major milestone will be airlines utilizing eVTOL technology. This is important for the industry because customers already place their trust with the major airlines. Therefore, a company like Delta can more easily win customers’ trust than an air taxi startup. The value proposition is as follows: 

“As part of the first-of-its-kind arrangement, the companies will work together to integrate a Joby-operated service into Delta’s customer-facing channels, providing customers who travel with Delta through New York and Los Angeles the opportunity to reserve a seat for seamless, zero-operating-emission, short-range journeys to and from city airports when booking Delta travel.”  

The timeline  depends on the FAA, eVTOL testing, and the infrastructure necessary to transport passengers. However, without any major setbacks, this could become a reality within 3 – 5 years. 

Archer Aviation, Joby, and other air taxi companies will likely target major events to initially  showcase their Air Taxis to the public while the cameras are on. Archer plans to utilize the 2026 world cup that is taking place in Southern California to do just this. The Super Bowl, College Football Playoffs, and other major sporting events have more possibilities of a prime setting to first deploy eVTOLs. The first markets will likely require favorable weather conditions to avoid disruption. Therefore, Los Angeles and Miami will be the first major cities to first see eVTOLS conquering their skies. 

At this point, perhaps in 2035, when the public has largely embraced eVTOL technology and its numerous use cases, there will be opportunity for entrepreneurs to deliver eVTOLs to the individual level. Wealthy individuals with large plots of lands and lake houses will likely be the first to explore the possibility of personal ownership. Some of the major companies currently working on this include Jetson One, Doroni Aerospace, and Air One.